Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Quartz: Emerging markets need to stop focusing on their exchange rates

Here's a link to my 3rd Quartz article on how much of the emerging market sell-off was about monetary policy failures in the emerging markets themselves. In particular, by trying to maintain exchange rate policies, central banks in these countries overexpose themselves to foreign economic conditions. The highly positive response to the recent delay of taper serves as further evidence that many of these emerging economies need better ways of insulating themselves from foreign monetary shocks. Much of the work, draws on blog posts from Lars Christensen. His examples comparing monetary policy in Australia and South Africa versus policy in Brazil and Indonesia were particularly helpful. A few excerpts:

The sell-off in emerging markets is not an omen of a prolonged economic contraction. Although capital flows were also turbulent after the 2008 financial crisis, growth in emerging markets continued. Nor is this a sign of financial crisis. “One thing most people seem to agree on is that this is not a replay of the late 1990s,” writes Ryan Avent in the Economist. A combination of exchange rate flexibility and low external debt means that emerging markets are unlikely to experience the same level of carnage as was seen in the 1997. Rather, the sell-off is a statement about how monetary policy has been unable to stabilize output in emerging markets and the importance of monetary reform. 
...Since all capital controls eventually leak, emerging markets can commit to stabilizing either the exchange rate or domestic output—not both. Economists Joshua Aizenman, Menzie Chinn, and Hiro Ito (pdf) have shown that this tradeoff is real. In the 1972 to 2006 time period, “Greater monetary independence [was] associated with lower output volatility while greater exchange rate stability [implied] greater output volatility.” 
Between these two options, the answer should be clear. Central banks in emerging markets need to focus on domestic output, and not the exchange rate.

5 comments:

  1. The focus of economic crisis watchers has shifted to Europe. The European Union, and especially the core countries that comprise exchange rates

    ReplyDelete
  2. Bài post của admin tuyệt vời, thank bạn đã share.
    Xem thêm Blog : Bán đá thạch anh

    ReplyDelete
  3. Bài post của Bạn thật hay, cám ơn bạn đã chia sẻ.
    Xem tại website : Thạch anh vụn

    ReplyDelete
  4. Kiến thức của Admin rất hay, thank bạn đã share.
    Xem tại website : Tỳ hưu thạch anh

    ReplyDelete
  5. How Lemeridian funding service  grant me a loan!!!

    Hello everyone, I'm Lea Paige Matteo from Zurich Switzerland and want to use this medium to express gratitude to lemeridian funding service for fulfilling his promise by granting me a loan, I was stuck in a financial situation and needed to refinance and pay my bills as well as start up a Business. I tried seeking for loans from various loan firms both private and corporate organisations but never succeeded and most banks declined my credit request. But as God would have it, I was introduced by a friend named Lisa Rice to Le_meridian funding service and undergone the due process of obtaining a loan from the company, to my greatest surprise within 48hrs just like my friend Lisa, I was also granted a loan of $216,000.00 So my advise to everyone who desires a loan, "if you must contact any firm with reference to securing a loan online with low interest rate of 1.9% and better repayment plans/schedule, please contact Le_meridian funding service. Besides, he doesn't know that am doing this but due to the joy in me, I'm so happy and wish to let people know more about this great company whom truly give out loans, it is my prayer that GOD should bless them more as they put smiles on peoples faces. You can contact them via email on {lfdsloans@lemeridianfds.com Or lfdsloans@outlook.com} or Text through Whatsapp +1-989 394 3740.

    ReplyDelete